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Posted Tue Mar 10 2009: from
Jeffrey Brown and the Net Oil Exports Crisis
The genesis of his rather radical views--radical, that is, for a Texas oilman--are a simple question he asked himself several years ago: What happens to oil exports in a world with constrained oil supplies? ... His pondering led to the creation of the the Export Land Model. It goes something like this: A hypothetical oil exporter--let's call it Export Land--has reached its peak in oil production. Assume domestic users consume half of all the oil produced in Export Land at the moment; assume a 5 percent annual decline rate for production; and assume a 2 percent annual increase in domestic consumption. The result is that Export Land reaches zero exports in an astonishingly short nine years.
[Read more stories about: faster than expected, low-energy future, oil issues]

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Angryman says: "Those emirates will be sad *only after sucking us dry* in a post-peak world."

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'Doc Jim says:
The ExportLand Emirates will be so sad to lose their buddies in ImportLand.

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