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Posted Fri Apr 5 2013: from HSBC, via GoFossilFree:
Oil & Carbon Futures Revisited
The IEA(s World Energy Outlook (2012 edition) estimated that in order to have a 50 percent chance of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 2 degrees C, only a third of current fossil fuel reserves can be burned before 2050. The balance could be regarded as "unburnable."... In a low-carbon world, defined as limiting future CO2 emissions until 2050 to 1,440Gt, oil demand would fall post 2010. Gas demand would continue to grow but at a slower rate than currently. This means some potential oil and gas developments would no longer be needed. ... Price risk a material threat: Although not directly related to 'unburnable' carbon, a greater risk to the [oil] sector would be if lower demand led to lower oil and gas prices. In that case, the potential value at risk could rise to 40-60 percent of market cap. Low costs are the key: Because of its long-term nature, we doubt the market is pricing in the risk of a loss of value from this issue.
[Read more stories about: capitalist greed, low-energy future, economic myopia]

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'Doc Michael says:
This bottle is half-full of risky value. Or is that half-empty of valuable risk?

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