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Posted Thu Oct 6 2011: from PhysOrg:
Why climate models underestimate Arctic sea ice retreat
In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has suffered a dramatic decline that exceeds climate model predictions. The unexpected rate of ice shrinkage has now been explained by researchers at CNRS, Université Joseph Fourier and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. They argue that climate models underestimate the rate of ice thinning, which is actually about four times faster than calculations. This model bias is due to the poor representation of the sea ice southward drift out of the Arctic basin through the Fram Strait. When this mechanism was taken into account to correct the discrepancy between simulations and observations, results from the new model suggested that there will be no Arctic sea ice in summer by the end of the century.
[Read more stories about: faster than expected, arctic meltdown]

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Byron says: "There will be basically no Arctic sea ice in summer by the end of the decade, or perhaps the next one."

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Underestimates may be underestimated.

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