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Posted Wed May 26 2010: from
BBC:
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Polar bears face 'tipping point' due to climate change http://apocadocs.com/s.pl?1274882201
Climate change will trigger a dramatic and sudden decline in the number of polar bears, a new study has concluded.
The research is the first to directly model how changing climate will affect polar bear reproduction and survival.
Based on what is known of polar bear physiology, behaviour and ecology, it predicts pregnancy rates will fall and fewer bears will survive fasting during longer ice-free seasons.
These changes will happen suddenly as bears pass a 'tipping point'.... Male polar bears find females by wandering the ice, sniffing bear tracks they come across. If the tracks have been made by a female in mating condition, the male follows the tracks to her.
The researchers modelled how this behaviour would change as warming temperatures fragment sea ice.
They also modelled the impact on the bears' survival.... "In both cases, the expected changes in reproduction and survival were non-linear," explains Dr Molnar.
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[Read more stories about:
arctic meltdown, climate impacts]
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