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Posted Tue Mar 17 2009: from PNAS, via Mongabay:
Experts forecast high probability of global warming tipping points
The probability of Earth's climate passing a "tipping point" that could result in large impacts within the next two centuries is greater than 50 percent, according to research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.... [T]he authors calculate a 16 percent chance that climate change will trigger at least one of the events for a 2-4 degree C rise in temperature, and a 56 percent change for a 4 degree C or higher rise.... Of the events, the experts pegged melting of the Greenland ice sheet as the most likely to occur (60 percent for a 4-8 degree C rise in temperature). An ice-free Greenland would raise sea levels by more than 23 feet (7 meters). The likelihood of a permanent el Nino -- which would trigger changes in rainfall and temperature around the global -- or a catastrophic die-off (more than 50 percent) of the Amazon rainforest was estimated at about 50 percent under a high warming scenario.
[Read more stories about: anthropogenic change, tipping point, rising sea level, melting glaciers]

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'Doc Jim says:
Two centuries?
Lucky for me, I'll be long dead!

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