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Shell CEO: Easy-To-Produce Oil to Peak http://apocadocs.com/s.pl?1207266277 
Van der Veer said while depletion of maturing conventional resources would certainly play a key role in peak production, lack of access to remaining large reserves, such as in Saudi Arabia, was also a central component in his forecast.
Remaining resources, such as gas trapped in difficult-to-tap reservoirs or oil sands and shales, will require increasingly costly investments per barrel to produce.
"It's becoming technologically expensive, capital intensive and lead times are growing longer," van der Veer said at an energy supply scenario seminar at the Center for Strategic International Studies. 
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The ApocaDocs say:
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Our "lead time" is measured in months, these days.
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